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New energy circuit shortage of core raw material series - PVDF (attached shares)
2022-10-11

Since this year, the new energy track good news: photovoltaic, installation planning exceeded expectations, according to the National Energy Administration announced the 2021 annual photovoltaic installed capacity of about 53GW, China photovoltaic industry Association is expected to achieve 85-100GW in 2022; The sales of new energy vehicles increased significantly in 2022, and the penetration rate increased significantly: in June, the domestic sales of new energy vehicles reached 596,000, +33.4% month-on-month, +129.2% year-on-year, and 23.8% penetration rate; The association expects sales of new energy vehicles to exceed 6 million in 2022, with a penetration rate of around 22%.

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With the rapid growth of the new energy industry, the demand for relevant core raw materials is rapidly expanding. For raw materials with high technical barriers and long production expansion cycle, it is easy to cause a shortage. Combing found that the most scarce raw materials this year are PVDF&R142b, EVA, trichlorosilicon, metal antimony and so on. The author will take you to understand one by one in a series. Today, we first have a specific understanding of PVDF and R142b.

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PVDF&R142b

PVDF(polyvinylidene fluoride), mainly used as a cathode binder and diaphragm coating material for lithium batteries.

Lithium-grade PVDF materials are in extreme shortage at present. Demand side: According to the calculation of industry institutions, the global demand for lithium-grade PVDF is about 57,000 tons in 2022, and the global demand for lithium-grade PVDF will exceed 120,000 tons in 2025. Supply side: In 2021, the overall capacity of China's PVDF industry is 71,000 tons/year, but the capacity of lithium-grade PVDF is only 19,000 tons/year.

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High returns and good prospects for the industry, so that the original PVDF manufacturers and fluorine chemical enterprises have joined the PVDF production and expansion army. Including: Lianchuang shares, Dongyue Group, Juhua shares, Haohua Technology, Yonghe shares, Sinochem Blue Sky, Sanaifu, Vonolin, Pultai Lai, Zhongchuang Environmental protection, etc., the momentum is very huge.

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Source: Lianchuang Shares reply to the letter of inquiry

According to the analysis of the industry, lithium-grade PVDF has a long production expansion cycle (about 2-3 years), mainly due to two reasons:

1, lithium electric PVDF technical barriers are high, not only the process is complex, the preparation is difficult, there are only a few energy production in the market;

2. The raw material R142b is a nationally controlled variety. In 2022, the total national quota of R142b in refrigerant is less than 14,000 tons, which means that the sales volume of R142b as a separate commodity shall not exceed 14,000 tons. The current domestic R142b has a total capacity of about 150,000 tons, and there will be no new capacity expansion before the end of 2022.

In conclusion, the gap between supply and demand is obvious before the new capacity of lithium-electric PVDF is released, and the new capacity will not be released successively until 2023 at the earliest. Market participants believe that PVDF will be the most scarce lithium materials in 2022. Companies that are now in a position to mass produce will benefit most.

Pre:NONE